Sign in
CS

CONSTELLIUM SE (CSTM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 beat Street across the board: revenue $1.98B vs $1.81B consensus, EPS $0.276 vs $0.055 consensus, and EBITDA $163M vs $116M consensus; company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $186M including a $46M positive metal price lag, implying stronger underlying performance and a clear headline beat. [1]* Values retrieved from S&P Global
  • Guidance maintained: FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA (ex-metal lag) $600–$630M and Free Cash Flow >$120M; longer-term 2028 targets unchanged at $900M Adjusted EBITDA (ex-metal lag) and $300M FCF.
  • Packaging outperformed; muscle Shoals improvement and price/mix helped offset auto and specialty weakness; A&T and AS&I were impacted by Valais flood-related costs and aerospace/TID softness.
  • Tariffs are a fluid headwind/offset mix; management estimates ~$20M 2025 gross headwind from Canadian extrusions before mitigation, while local-for-local positioning, price actions, and scrap dynamics present opportunities.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong packaging performance: P&ARP Adjusted EBITDA rose 25% YoY to $60M on higher packaging shipments (+9% YoY in North America) and improved Muscle Shoals operations, with favorable price/mix.
  • Company-level beat and cash discipline: Net income rose to $38M (vs $22M), operating cash flow was $58M, and share buybacks totaled 1.4M shares for $15M.
  • Management confidence and discipline: Guidance maintained despite macro uncertainty; continued focus on Vision 25 cost program and commercial/capital discipline. “We remain focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation and commercial and capital discipline.”

What Went Wrong

  • Aerospace/TID softness and flood impacts: A&T Adjusted EBITDA fell 14% YoY to $75M on lower shipments and unfavorable mix; Valais flood had ~$4M A&T and ~$6M AS&I negative impacts in Q1.
  • Automotive weakness in both regions: Automotive shipments decreased and AS&I Adjusted EBITDA halved to $16M on lower auto and extrusions volumes; ongoing end market weakness flagged.
  • Tariff headwinds: Section 232-related extrusions into U.S. from Canada ~+$20M gross cost headwind in 2025 before mitigation; Q1 impact >$1M.

Financial Results

Consolidated performance vs prior quarters (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,802*$1,721 $1,979
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $USD)€0.02 (IFRS) $(0.34) $0.26
Net Income ($USD Millions)€3 (IFRS) $(47) $38
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)€110 (IFRS) $125 $186
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)€(10) (IFRS) $(85) $(3)

Note: Q3 2024 was reported under IFRS in euros; Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 under U.S. GAAP in USD.

  • Values retrieved from S&P Global

Q1 2025 actual vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global)

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$1,808,499,783*$1,979,000,000*Beat
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.0551*$0.2757*Beat
EBITDA ($USD)$115,805,231*$163,000,000*Beat
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global
    Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $186M and includes $46M positive non-cash metal price lag; consensus/actual EBITDA from S&P likely excludes metal lag.

Segment performance (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

SegmentShipments (kT) Q1’25Shipments (kT) Q1’24Revenue ($M) Q1’25Revenue ($M) Q1’24Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M) Q1’25Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M) Q1’24
A&T51 57 468 479 75 87
P&ARP269 264 1,187 1,018 60 48
AS&I52 59 381 396 16 32
Holdings & Corp————(11) (7)

Product line shipments and revenue (Q1 2025)

Product LineShipments (kT)Revenue ($M)
Aerospace Rolled Products24 267
TID Rolled Products28 201
Packaging Rolled Products204 868
Automotive Rolled Products60 291
Specialty & Other Thin-Rolled4 28
Automotive Extruded Products31 234
Other Extruded Products22 147
Other & Inter-segment Eliminations—(57)
Total372 1,979

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ1 2025
Shipments (kT)372
Cash from Operations ($M)58
Free Cash Flow ($M)(3)
Liquidity ($M)800 (Cash $118 + availability $682)
Net Debt ($M)1,826
Leverage (Net Debt / LTM Segment Adj. EBITDA)3.3x
Share Repurchases1.4M shares, $15M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q4 2024)Current Guidance (Q1 2025)Change
Adjusted EBITDA (ex-metal price lag)FY 2025$600–$630M $600–$630M Maintained
Free Cash FlowFY 2025>$120M >$120M Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA (ex-metal price lag)FY 2028$900M $900M Maintained
Free Cash FlowFY 2028$300M $300M Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tariffs/macroFlagged uncertainty; no quantified impact yet; price increase on U.S. flat-rolled announced Preparing for fluid impact; “net opportunities” expected ~$20M 2025 gross headwind from Canadian extrusions; >$1M impact in Q1; mitigation through pass-throughs; local-for-local advantage Headwind quantified; mitigation progressing
Aerospace supply chainDestocking and build-rate delays; mixed margins Weak but stable volumes; margins still attractive ex-Valais Choppy near term; mix weaker; volumes down 11% YoY; defense/space healthy Stabilizing at lower run-rate; recovery pushed right
Packaging demandHealthy in NA/EU; new recycling center start-up Healthy; price/mix benefits; Muscle Shoals improving Strong shipments and mix; P&ARP EBITDA +25% YoY Improving; operational gains sustaining
Scrap spreads/metal costsTight spreads in NA; headwind to P&ARP $15–$20M per quarter headwind; expected to persist near-term Spot improved modestly; H1 contracted at tighter levels; benefit widening later Gradual improvement; still a headwind
Cost program (Vision 25)Accelerating cost reductions ~$50M+ opportunities; ~$40M Holdings & Corp in 2025 Continued acceleration; focus on labor, procurement, maintenance Execution accelerating
Valais floodSignificant Q3 impact; ramp by Q1 2025 Q4 EBITDA impact $15M; FCF impact $39M; ramp on track Q1 EBITDA impact ~$10M; operations resumed; lower cost structure at run-rate Recovery progressing; structural cost improvements

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Constellium delivered solid results… despite continued demand weakness… and some lingering impacts from the flood… We repurchased 1.4 million shares for $15 million… leverage at 3.3x.”
  • CEO on tariffs: “Tariffs remain a very fluid situation… we believe it presents opportunities for Constellium, and comes with some costs.”
  • CFO on segments: “A&T… volume headwind of $20M… price/mix headwind $16M… costs tailwind $25M.”
  • CFO on packaging: “Packaging shipments increased 9%… Muscle Shoals improved… price/mix tailwind $9M.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs cadence: ~$20M gross 2025 headwind from Canadian extrusions is expected to be fairly even quarterly before mitigation; one customer already agreed to full pass-through.
  • Scrap spreads: Spot improved modestly by quarter-end; contracted H1 spreads still tight; guidance includes current scrap assumptions.
  • Packaging/mix: Muscle Shoals improvement supports higher can sheet; price/mix uplift driven by end-stock mix.
  • Aerospace: Destocking and supply chain challenges continue; defense/space healthy; near-term choppiness expected.
  • European defense: Early signs of demand; potential ramp tied to execution of increased defense spending.

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results exceeded consensus on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA: revenue $1.979B vs $1.808B; EPS $0.276 vs $0.055; EBITDA $163M vs $116M. Company Adjusted EBITDA was $186M including a $46M positive metal price lag, which consensus likely excludes; this drove the headline beat. * Values retrieved from S&P Global
  • Coverage depth: EPS estimates count was low (1), revenue estimates (3), indicating limited analyst coverage and potentially larger surprise magnitude. * Values retrieved from S&P Global

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Broad beat with guidance maintained: Strong Q1 print and unchanged FY25/FY28 targets signal execution despite macro/tariff noise.
  • Packaging strength offsets auto/specialty softness; operational improvements at Muscle Shoals and favorable price/mix underpin segment resilience.
  • Tariff impacts quantified and mitigated: ~$20M extrusions headwind being offset by pass-throughs, local-for-local advantage, and price actions; net opportunities remain.
  • Metal price dynamics supportive: Positive $46M metal price lag boosted Q1 Adjusted EBITDA; scrap spreads may gradually ease later in 2025.
  • Balance sheet/liquidity intact: $800M liquidity, net debt $1.826B, leverage 3.3x with trajectory to trend down by year-end; buybacks continue.
  • Segment mix matters: A&T and AS&I near-term choppy on aerospace/TID/auto, but defense/space and eventual supply chain normalization provide medium-term recovery optionality.
  • Flood recovery largely behind: Valais operations resumed with lower cost structure, implying margin tailwinds as mix normalizes.